Risk intelligence (19/03/2021) - Thailand
THAI CIVIL UNREST UPDATE
Tensions are again running high in Thailand following the announcement of the Ratsadon protest movement in mid-February to intensify their protests after four of their key leaders were sent into pre-trial detention on royal defamation charges.
Their continued detention and the increasing number of key activists who face jail time over lese-majeste or sedition charges has become the main rallying cry for the protesters, suggesting that momentum has shifted in favour of the government.
Generally, the protest movement can be expected to mobilise several thousand supporters, but it is becoming increasingly unlikely that it will be able to generate the massive turnout it achieved at the height of the unrest in late 2020, before a second coronavirus outbreak brought an end to the protests.
Risk intelligence (18/03/2021) - India
COVID-19 UPDATE
Indian authorities in Uttar Pradesh's Gautam Buddh Nagar and Ghaziabad districts have imposed prohibitory orders against public gatherings with immediate effect in view of the rising COVID-19 graphs in Delhi & the National Capital Region (NCR), India.
The order has been enforced in Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad - three important satellite cities near Delhi, and will be in force till 30 April at least. Authorities may extend the order depending on the prevailing outbreak situations there.
Risk intelligence (17/03/2021) - Indonesia
The Indonesian government has indicated that it will allow people to travel to their hometowns for Idul Fitri this year in the annual mass exodus known as ‘mudik,’ despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Minister of Transportation Budi Karya Sumadi told a parliamentary commission meeting yesterday that the government will not prohibit people from traveling for Idul Fitri and that authorities will “tighten” measures to ensure adherence to health protocols.
Risk intelligence (16/03/2021) - India
India’s active COVID-19 caseload has been rising again over the last fortnight and has left health experts wondering whether the second wave of outbreak has already set in amid the country-wide vaccination drive.
India recorded the highest single-day jump in fresh infection number in nearly three months on Monday, 15 March - 26,291 new patients were added to the country’s tally over a period of 24 hours till 0800hrs, and 24,492 more over the next 24 hours.
The country has also reported a 33% rise in fresh COVID-19 cases on a week-to-week basis from 8-15 March.
Risk intelligence (15/03/2021) - Indonesia
Security forces are pursuing members of an armed group responsible for holding an aircraft and its passengers captive in Puncak regency, Papua, Indonesia last week. About 30 armed men ambushed the Susi Air flight after it landed at the Wangbe Airport at around 0620hrs local time on 12 March.
The airport is located about 40 kilometres from the regency capital Ilaga.
The armed men forced the pilot, a New Zealand national, and three Papuan passengers off the aircraft. A military (TNI) spokesman said that the men asked the pilot to inform the airline’s management not to transport police and TNI personnel to Puncak.
Risk intelligence (12/03/2021) - China
On Thursday, 11 March, the National People’s Congress (NPC) adopted the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035,” or the 14th Five-Year Plan (14FYP), at the conclusion of the annual “Two Sessions” meeting in Beijing.
The document contained few, if any, surprises – the key principles and content were previewed at the 5th Plenum last October – but significantly clarified the path charted for the next five years. In this analysis, we aim to provide an initial reading of what we perceive to be the most important takeaway for major multinationals: the possible implications for data security policy.
CNN - Analyst gives comment on China
CNN has published an article on risks associated with travel and safety, when considering business in China. Our risk intelligence lead, Ian BETTS, gave leadership comment on Thomas Nunlist’s input.
“The risk of arbitrary detention has been a cause of concern for multinational clients and other designations in China for more than a year. In this article our Senior Analyst for China, Thomas Nunlist, gives his view on the risks.”
Climate risk intelligence (10/03/2021) - Indonesia
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) on Tuesday 09th March 2021, warned of the potential for extreme intensity rain along with thunderstorms and strong winds in parts of Java and Sumatra.
The BMKG also called on regional authorities to anticipate flooding and landslides with extreme weather forecast in 23 provinces, including Jakarta, Banten, Bali, West and Central Java, South Sulawesi and South Sumatra.
Risk intelligence (09/03/2021) - Myanmar
Protests continued yesterday in Myanmar against the military junta in a number of cities and regions including Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Shan state and Kachin state.
In Myitkyina city, Kachin state, two pro-democracy protesters were reportedly killed by security forces.
Reports indicate that a number of protesters were hit by gunfire, and security forces also used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse a rally.
Risk intelligence (08/03/2021) - India
Last week, The New York Times published an article detailing the possibility that a city-wide grid failure in Mumbai last year that left millions without power for several hours could have been the result of a cyberattack.
Much of the story is based on an analytical report by cyber threat research firm Recorded Future.
The report described a substantial increase in suspected “targeted intrusion activity” directed at Indian assets, primarily in the power sector, from state-sponsored hacking groups, but noted that no link between the outage and a cyberattack has been substantiated.
Risk intelligence (05/03/2021) - Bangladesh
Bangladesh has reported protests against the Digital Security Act (DSA) following the death of writer and government critic Mushtaq Ahmed, who was detained under the controversial legislation and had been under pre-trial custody since May 2020.
Tension is running high in the capital Dhaka, where protesters clashed with the police on 28 February, while demonstrations were also reported in other parts of the country including Chattogram and Khulna.
Risk Intelligence (03/03/2021) - Indonesia
Police are investigating a terrorism attack plot by members of the al-Qaeda affiliated Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) network following the arrest of more than 20 suspects in raids across East Java, Indonesia.
The police special counterterrorism unit Densus 88 detained 12 suspects in Surabaya, Sidoarjo, Mojokerto and Malang on 26 February, while nine others were arrested in Surabaya, Malang, Kediri and Bojonegoro on 1 and 2 March.
Risk Intelligence (01/03/2021) - China
Last week, the Financial Times ran an editorial on HSBC’s “pivot to Asia,” a decision underpinned both by business interests and, according to the Editorial Board, a “recognition of the new political reality.” HSBC, perhaps more so than any other company, has found itself between a rock and a hard place in Hong Kong.
This short article sets out points and positions of interest and relevance.
Risk Intelligence (26/02/2021) - Malaysia
Our main report provides an update on the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. Available data indicates that the pace and scope of the outbreak have begun to contract, as the number of average daily new infections and active cases continues to decline.
These recent positive trends persisted throughout the week, suggesting that a tipping point has been reached, and that the outbreak has effectively begun to recede.
Risk Intelligence (25/02/2021) Indonesia
Papuan communities across Indonesia continue to stage demonstrations against the extension of the province’s special autonomy (Otsus) ahead of its expiry at the end of the year.
Activists and students gathered outside the Ministry of Home Affairs in Central Jakarta yesterday to demand that the government not extend Otsus on the grounds that it has not improved the welfare of Papuans.
Risk Intelligence (19/02/2021) - Thailand civil unrest
Civil Unrest update for Bangkok Thailand
In a significant change of course, the Ratsadon protest movement last week vowed to intensify their protests after four of their leaders were sent into pre-trial detention on royal defamation charges.
Risk intelligence (18/02/2021) - Indonesia Covid-19 prevention measures
Our risk intelligence specialists, led by Ian Betts and Bryce Green, take a 24/7 coverage approach to local, regional and global emerging threats and occurrences.
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