Risk intelligence (09/03/2021) - Myanmar
Our risk intelligence specialists, led by Ian BETTS, take a 24/7 coverage approach to local, regional and global emerging threats and occurrences. Below is a small sample of our reporting, and you can discuss gaining comprehensive material through our risk intelligence function, and by using our 247 App.
PROTESTS CONTINUE WITH REPORTS OF MORE FATALITIES
Protests continued yesterday against the military junta in a number of cities and regions including Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Shan state and Kachin state. In Myitkyina city, Kachin state, two pro-democracy protesters were reportedly killed by security forces. Reports indicate that a number of protesters were hit by gunfire, and security forces also used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse a rally.
In Yangon, rallies were reported in a number of areas including Myaynigone and North Okkalapa. There were no reported incidents of mass violence in Yangon, however police used tear gas to disperse a crowd of hundreds in Myaynigone. In Mandalay, local media reported an incident involving a collision between a military truck and protesters on Manawhari Road that left six people injured. Security forces had deployed a heavy presence in the city.
Police reportedly used rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse protesters in Ayeyarwaddy and Shan state. Pro-democracy activists have also called for an expansion of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), a general strike that opposes the military junta and has mainly targeted civil servants and workers in state-owned institutions.
Activists are now urging more members of the private sector to join in opposition to the junta and to disrupt the economy.
More violence was also reported over the weekend. On the evening of Saturday 6 March, two members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) were reportedly killed amid mass arrests by the military targeting pro-democracy activists in Yangon.
On Sunday 7 March, protests and violent clashes occurred in multiple cities and regions. In Yangon rallies and clashes were reported in the townships of North Okkalapa, Taikkyi, Thanlyin, Thaketa, Tamwe, Hlaing, Insein and Twantay. Security forces used rubber bullets, tear gas and stun grenades to disperse a number of the rallies, and gunfire was reported in Taikkyi.
In multiple regions, including Mandalay, military personnel have occupied public hospitals and universities. On Sunday morning, locals clashed with security forces who entered the Mandalay Technology University. Tear gas and rubber bullets were used.
Clashes were also reported at the Mandalay General Hospital.
Military Junta Hires Foreign Lobbyist
Myanmar’s junta has hired a former Israeli intelligence official to lobby the US and other governments following the international backlash over last month’s coup, according to a story published by Foreign Lobby Report. It reported that the Defence Minister Mya Tun Oo has retained lobbyist Ari Ben-Menashe and his PR firm Dickens & Madson Canada to explain “the real situation in the country.” Comments attributed to Ben-Menashe indicate that he plans to argue the military was forced to act because Aung San Suu Kyi was allowing the country to drift too close to China, and that she was responsible for the Rohingya crisis.
It remains to be seen how such lobbying would be received by a potential ally in China. A United Nations fact-finding mission into alleged atrocities against the Rohingya implicated top army leaders as responsible for the violence. Ben-Menashe also told Reuters that the junta could prove last November’s election was rigged and that ethnic minorities were blocked from voting. Election observers have said there were no major irregularities.
Ben-Menashe has an established career working for high-profile clients including Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Sudan’s military junta and presidential candidates in Venezuela, Tunisia and Kyrgyzstan, among others.
The political and security situation in Myanmar remains highly uncertain and volatile. The deployment of security forces to key installations in the capital and other major cities has led to the use of deadly force against opponents of military rule. The risk of further civil unrest and violent clashes between supporters of the NLD, military loyalists and security forces remains elevated. We advise you to follow the orders of the security forces and comply with any measures implemented by the authorities. We strongly suggest you follow our advisory and recommendations to reduce personal risks and to mitigate the impact of current events on your operations and business.