Challenge

A client operating in eastern Indonesia required a comprehensive risk assessment for several provinces, with a focus on security threats, natural disaster risks, and foreign national safety. The objective was to support travel planning, protect personnel, and inform operational decisions.

Our Approach

H&A’s analysts conducted a desktop review of relevant open-source intelligence (OSINT) and engaged with local sources to gather real-time data. The methodology involved qualitative risk analysis using a Risk Matrix to categorise threats by probability and consequence level.

Key Findings

• Armed separatist activity remains a significant threat in Highland Papua, and Central Papua, with risks of kidnapping, violent attacks, and election-related unrest.
• Civil unrest is a risk in most provinces, particularly in areas with ethnic tensions, resource-related disputes, and political demonstrations.
• Natural disasters pose a persistent risk across all provinces, with earthquakes, flooding, and landslides being the primary concerns.
• Crime varies by province, with petty theft, robbery, and illegal mining common risks in both urban and remote areas.
• Foreign nationals face increased monitoring and scrutiny in some provinces, particularly in provinces in Papua.

Outcome

H&A delivered detailed risk assessments for each province, highlighting specific threats and risk mitigation strategies. The reports provided clients with clear travel advisories, including high-risk areas to avoid.

Impact

The assessments enabled the client to:

• Update safety protocols for employees operating in these provinces.
• Adjust travel plans to minimise exposure to security threats.
• Enhance business continuity planning by identifying risks from natural disasters and civil unrest.